A good friend recently asked for my thoughts on the military buildup in the Caribbean.

This post is my reply to him.

Hello G____:

I believe the relevant information can be summarized in my Bands of Robbers post earlier this year. 

I agree with the administration in that Venezuela is indeed a criminal enterprise which has wreaked — and continue to wreak — havoc not only on the Venezuelan people but on the land itself — the Orinoco Mining Arc is truly a disaster zone. And the drug market has enriched and continues to enrich the Communists in charge of the chaos, while the poor and what’s left of the middle class, suffer. 

According to several estimates, about 20%, or more, of the country’s population has emigrated since Chavez in the late 1990’s. That’s about 8 Million souls.

So if the current people in charge recognize the 2024 elections, which they lost in a landslide, AND peacefully transfer power to the legitimate victors, that would be a positive development but no panacea.

My concern is that, for generations, since well before my birth, Venezuelans have been taught that Democracy is good and that it is in essence the same as Socialism. They don’t declare it quite so bluntly, but that is what it is. In other words, our deep troubles did not begin with Chavez. Nor would the hope in the Venezuelan military, a hope shared by many, including dear friends, ever be realized, because, historically, the military was and is as left wing as the political leadership. Even more so.

Once again, we can credit Simón Bolívar, whose idolization of the French Revolution did so much harm to South America. His overwhelming influence determined the course of Venezuelan public and private education, which for the entire 20th Century was based on the French model, including centralization and, in essence, rule by “experts” — meaning left wing.

So, again, if the administration’s actions, successfully pressure the current leadership to recognize the true 2024 victors, so much the better. However, if the victors are not recognized and the current despotism simply abdicates and leaves a vacuum, we or the administration, would be truly naive to expect something good to fill it. 

As for the 2024 victors, their political platform is encouraging on the economic side, including free-market principles and deregulation. I understand Machado appreciates Ludwig Von Mises and Milton Freedman over Douglas Bravo and Karl Marx. Unfortunately, on the social issues, she is not as conservative. However, on balance, if I had my druthers, I would prefer her over the current mafia in charge. Hence my desire that the current president and his followers truly and cleanly transfer power to them.

But we have no guarantee of that — at least at the moment. 

As for military action — as opposed to offshore pressure — I am not in favor. History has shown that wars’ results are unpredictable and this is especially true in the case of Venezuela. She is a very large country and the Castro-Chavez-Maduro triumvirate has hundreds if not thousands of its own ideologically aligned minions ensconced in positions of leadership throughout the country. It has also armed its own to the teeth. This would be a very bloody enterprise which can expect highly unpredictable results for both Venezuela and the United States.

No matter what, we can take comfort in God’s overruling Providence, regardless of the actions taken.

Be well, G____.

Your friend,

Richard