Tag: Covid-19

Have We Been Had? Part 4: Another Look At Sweden

Richard Barnes

The last time we considered Sweden’s anomalous experience with the Covid Regimentation was over a year and a half ago, in August, 2021. 

As I stated in that post, “One country refused to bow down to the World Economic Forum, the World Health Organization, and the Lockdown and Mask Professors (which are legion).

“That country is Sweden. For a refresher, see here. And for my reply to some pushback I got for my comments on Sweden [in 2020], see here.”

John Hinderaker, of Powerlline, published the below post, which we all should read. The Local article he quotes from is behind a paywall so if you wish to read more you’ll have to subscribe:

From John Hinderaker:

Sweden was an outlier during the covid epidemic, in that its government did not order a nationwide shutdown [nor mask wearing]. This policy did not please much of Sweden’s establishment, as represented by The Local, which has been pro-lockdown. So this Local article is notable, in that it recognizes a basic fact about covid mortality that should have been obvious all along:

At one point in May 2020, Sweden had the highest Covid-19 death rate in the world, spurring newspapers like the New York Times and Time Magazine to present the country as a cautionary tale, a warning of how much more Covid-19 could ravage populations if strict enough measures were not applied.

That was very early in the epidemic, obviously. And country to country comparisons of covid-classified deaths are questionable:

Excess mortality — the number of people who die in a year compared to the number expected to die based on previous years — is seen by some statisticians as a better measure for comparing countries’ Covid-19 responses, as it is less vulnerable to differences in how Covid-19 deaths are reported.

Here in Minnesota, a guy who fell off a ladder and broke his neck was recorded as a covid death. Likewise a guy who had a car accident, was flung into a ditch, and died. And many others of that sort. Total mortality, on the other hand, is objectively measurable.

So there was undisguised glee among lockdown sceptics when Svenska Dagbladet published its data last week showing that in the pandemic years 2020, 2021 and 2022 Sweden’s excess mortality was the lowest, not only in the European Union, but of all the Nordic countries, beating even global Covid-19 success stories, such as Norway, Denmark and Finland.

So if you forget about classifying covid deaths and look at how many people died in excess of demographic projections, Sweden’s results were the best in the European Union. How can that be? The answer is, or should have been, obvious:

So why, if the Covid-19 death rates are still so different, are the excess mortality rates so similar?

This largely reflects the fact that many of those who died in Sweden in the first year of the pandemic were elderly people in care homes who would have died anyway by the end of 2022.

About 90 percent of Covid-19 deaths were in people above 70, Aavitsland pointed out, adding that this is the same age group where you find around 80 percent of all deaths, regardless of cause, in a Scandinavian country.

“My interpretation is that in the first year of the pandemic, say March 2020 – February 2021, Sweden had several thousand excess deaths among the elderly, including nursing home residents,” he said. “Most of this was caused by Covid-19. In the other [Nordic] countries, more people like these survived, but they died in 2022. The other countries managed to delay some deaths, but now, three years after, we end up at around the same place.”

An important fact here is that people who died from covid were overwhelmingly not just old, but old and already sick. So covid tipped them over sooner than would otherwise have happened, but not by a lot.

The bottom line is a point I have made more than once: covid shutdowns, at best–i.e., not in states like New York and Minnesota where infected old people were sent into nursing homes–delayed the inevitable for some of the already-sick elderly, at great cost to the rest of us, and especially at appalling cost to young people. It was a terrible bargain.

The above post by Mr. Hinderaker is not surprising to many of us who strongly questioned the worldwide “Covid Regime”. However, contrary to The Local’s assertion, it gives us no “glee” to see the devastation unquestioning acquiescence to corrupt reasoning has caused.

Again, it is important to remember that the world’s “public health experts” estimated that, without coverings and curfews, Sweden would suffer 80,000 to 90,000 deaths by May, 2020. That is, before the summer of 2020, Sweden was to have experienced massive numbers of deaths, not to mention a crippled hospital network. 

That did NOT happen. So the “experts” then moved the goal posts and began to assert that Sweden’s death rate was higher than that of her immediate neighbors.

“But, of course, curfews were not imposed upon the world because of ‘death rates’ [or “number of cases”] but rather because of absolute numbers of death. Numbers which never came close to materializing. Regardless, her death rate was lower than those of countries (and some U.S. states) who did exactly what the “public health experts” told them to do. And, what’s more, around June of 2020, her neighbors, Finland and Norway, actually reverted to very laissez faire approaches as well. In other words, their approaches emulated Sweden’s. And their approaches resulted in lower death rates. So, the experts’ and media’s comparisons to her neighbors left out the fact that her neighbors’ also had a “light touch” response to the plague. I know, I know: we are all shocked (!) that the reporting was misleading.”

“If you relied only on the usual media to keep informed, you would think the unified intelligent world was in agreement and that only quacks and idiots differed. You would not know that an entire developed European country was among the refuseniks.”

My conclusion back in 2021 applies today even more forcefully:

“Government Central Planning will have even less success in controlling a virus than it has had controlling the economies of the former Soviet Union, Cuba, and Venezuela.

“A virus will virus. Central Planning will only exacerbate its effects. 

“But, as we have seen, and will continue to see, the temptation for man to play God and to control the lives of others is overwhelming. It was so in Eden (“ye shall be as gods”) and it will be so until the end of time.”

Lest we forget: Sweden vs. New York mortality in 2020. Both ended up at about the same. However, the trajectory of each presents a grotesque contrast. New York’s mandates were draconian. So were her results.

Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s top epidemiologist who withstood unrelenting, withering criticism while staying the course

https://www.turnto23.com/news/coronavirus/accelerated-urgent-care-doctors-recommend-lifting-shelter-in-place-order

This briefing to local California media took place almost three years ago, in April, 2020. After 5 million views, it was taken down, a practice that has since become all-too-common. However, the news station still has it up. Both videos are available as of this writing and well worth your time because they so clearly reflect what many knew even back then but were censored from saying so. The first is roughly 51 minutes, the second, 2 minutes.

Have We Been Had? (Addendum)

Richard Barnes

A reader pointed me to a Times of Israel article (linked below) which, to some, appears to refute the favorable results of Sweden’s non-lockdown approach. I am thankful to the reader for the tip because the article helps illustrate some of the points made in earlier posts on quarantine as well as last week’s post. Specifically, the article illustrates the power of what we used to call “peer pressure” and, also, the rush to create amnesia about the projections which convinced most governments to shut down.

In the second of my series of posts on “The Bible and Quarantine” (Part 2) I noted how Sweden’s approach has been opposed by every major country in the West, not to say the world. Even President Trump, not known for jumping on bandwagons, leapt onto this one with a whoop and a holler, denouncing Sweden’s non-lockdown (link below).

“Sweden has been criticized, attacked, mocked, and despised…. Two weeks ago a group of 22 ‘scientists’ attacked the officials of Sweden’s department of health, demanding the Swedish government discard the directives of that department and impose the measures all the other countries have imposed. They implied that the Swedish population had been willfully deluded by ignorant authorities and by an epidemiologist who has been seduced by his sudden fame….”

“A French journalist may have let the cat out of the bag when, while interviewing a Swedish epidemiologist, he said, ‘…it’s almost as if we want Sweden to fail because then we’d know the fools are they and not us.”

So, now when Professor Lockdown himself expresses admiration for Sweden’s approach (Here), well, we must not have that. So The Times of Israel publishes an article titled, “Sweden Admits Virus Response Could Have Been Better, Though Not Quite Sure How.”

Notice the sleight of hand: “could have been better….” So I, as a reader, assume that they, after all, suffered the 80,000 to 90,000 deaths that were projected if no lockdown were imposed. But no, they have suffered “…4,468 deaths linked to COVID-19….”

Most of us want to be liked, even Swedish epidemiologists such as Dr. Tegnell. Assuming the aforementioned newspaper quoted Dr. Tegnell correctly and in context (and I make no claims that it did), he comes across as “reconsidering his unique approach” given the “high death toll.” World pressure can be effective.

But let us take a closer look at that “high death toll.”

Per the article, “Sweden’s rate of 43.24 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants is lower than Spain’s (58.06) and Italy’s (55.39) ….” But, wait: Spain and Italy had full lockdowns. Sweden’s rate is lower, with no lockdown.

“…but [Sweden’s rate] is higher than the reported rates in the United States (32.14) and Brazil (14.29)….”

Per Wikipedia, in Brazil, only two of her 27 states locked down. And her president has been urging citizens to ignore lockdown orders. Measurements in Brazil are questionable, but 14.29 is a very low rate considering that most of her states did not lockdown and lockdowns are being ignored in the rest.

As for the USA, comparisons to overall numbers are misleading, because each of our states handled it differently. For example, South Dakota had no lockdown, for which the governor was loudly denounced. The death rate there is currently 7.34 per 100,000 inhabitants, with no lockdown, which is far lower than the USA’s overall rate.

New York, with a full lockdown has a comparable death rate of 121.40 per 100,000 inhabitants, which is almost triple that of Sweden’s. Michigan, whose population is comparable to that of Sweden, has a death rate of 56.20, which is higher than Sweden’s, despite one of the most draconian lockdowns in the country.

In sum, comparing death rates can be very misleading since one must take into account population densities and other factors, including age of the inhabitants, comorbidities, and more.

More importantly, it would appear the media assumes most of us suffer amnesia and have forgotten that the lockdowns were triggered, not by death rates, but by truly frightening projections, such as 500,000 deaths in Britain and 2.2 Million deaths in the USA. Now that such projections have been shown to be grossly wrong, instead of focusing our analyses on how we decided to shut down the earth’s economies based on almost criminally bad data, we have moved the goal posts and are now focusing on “death rates” between countries. Not to mention the minimal focus on the devastation wreaked on nursing homes and assisted living facilities.

Which brings us to the matter the Swedes themselves admit they could have done better: addressing the failure “…to protect the country’s elderly and nursing home residents.”

That is a major fault in many places in the world. By some estimates, over half of USA deaths “linked to COVID-19” were in nursing homes or assisted living facilities (Here). This is an outrage. But this has nothing to do with the draconian lockdowns imposed on us. New York Governor Cuomo had been ordering nursing homes to accepts COVID patients. Don’t hold your breath for The Times of Israel, to run stories on that.

One more citation from the post on quarantine: “The English models (to which most other countries adhered) anticipated that [in Sweden] there’d be 8 Thousand to 9 Thousand patients requiring intensive care. The actual numbers are a fraction of that: 530. The hospitals are not overwhelmed.” So much for “flattening the curve.” 

The fact is that no leading country in the world would have shut down its entire economy on the basis of 4,468 projected deaths. Instead, they would have focused their efforts on reducing those deaths using other means, including taking special care of the elderly, nursing homes, and assisted living facilities.

Have we been had?

Sweden in the time of COVID-19

https://www.timesofisrael.com/sweden-admits-virus-response-could-have-been-better

https://www.onenewspage.com/n/Politics/1zlreqwnfg/Trump-criticizes-Sweden-no-lockdown-stance-after.htm

https://www.rt.com/usa/489951-cuomo-nursing-homes-deaths-mandate/

Have We Been Had?

Richard Barnes

One of the most oft heard refrains in my childhood in Venezuela had to do with disappointments with “democracy.” It was roughly along the lines of, “We’ve been had.” Use of the phrase would invariably result in very animated discussions (not to say heated arguments) about the merits and demerits of the Pérez Jiménez and Juan Vicente Gómez (here and here, for example) regimes versus Rómulo Betancourt and following (see here, here, and here as examples). This blog has written much about both eras and will continue to do so. However, the refrain’s Spanish version has been on my mind for several months now. Since the virus panic, to be precise.

This blog has several posts on the panic: here; here; here; and here.

It would appear that the riots and looting taking place in cities across the United States have pushed the virus off the American news for now. Or perhaps for good.

Yet, while American cities were burning, several virus-related stories were quietly reported.

First, across the pond, in London, a certain professor, known to the world as Professor Lockdown, was being questioned on his opinions regarding Sweden’s rejection of his lockdown prescriptions and whether maybe-perhaps-could-it-be-that his draconian recipes, which were followed by the UK, the USA, and most of the rest of the world, except Sweden, may have been a tad excessive.

Second, some mainstream media reports surfaced, albeit surreptitiously, about the stratospheric death rates in nursing homes, to wit: close to half (maybe more than half) of total US virus deaths took place in nursing homes.

And, third, a large number of public health officials wrote an open letter in effect encouraging “protesting” despite the lockdown restrictions in place, which they had strongly urged, and still urge, upon all law-abiding Americans. So, lockdown is absolutely necessary … unless you decide to riot.

This post extracts from each of the stories alluded to above. [Comments by me are in brackets]. 

The stories are linked below.

From The Telegraph (London)

The scientist behind lockdown in the UK has admitted that Sweden has achieved roughly the same suppression of coronavirus without draconian restrictions.

Neil Ferguson , who became known as “professor lockdown” after convincing Boris Johnson to radically curtail everyday freedoms, acknowledged that, despite relying on “quite similar science”, the Swedish authorities had “got a long way to the same effect” without a full lockdown. [And, for good measure, if they achieved “herd immunity,” any second waves will have little impact on them, unlike the rest of us. See here]

Sweden has adopted a far softer approach to Covid-19 than elsewhere in Europe, introducing voluntary social-distancing measures and keeping restaurants and bars and many schools open.

The Daily Mail (UK)

The professor whose grim warning that 500,000 Brits [and 2.2 million Americans] may die from Covid-19 without action triggered lockdown has admitted Sweden may have suppressed its outbreak as well as Britain — without imposing the draconian measures. 

Professor Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College London, revealed he had the ‘greatest respect’ for the Scandinavian nation, which has managed to suffer fewer deaths per capita than the UK.

He made the comments at a House of Lord Science and Technology Committee today during his first public appearance since flouting stay at home rules to have secret trysts with his married mistress last month.

The epidemiologist — dubbed Professor Lockdown — has come under fire for his modeling which predicted half a million Britons could die from Covid-19 and heavily influenced the UK’s decision to rush into a nationwide quarantine.

Professor Ferguson appeared to praise Sweden for keeping infections low without the economically crippling curbs and said ‘they have gone quite a long way to [achieving] the same effect.’

[He] admitted that lockdowns are ‘very crude’ policies and scientists would like to have ‘a much more targeted approach with less economic impact’;

“I have the greatest respect for scientists there [in Sweden]. They came to a different policy conclusion but based really on quite similar science.”

‘They make the argument that countries will find it very hard to really stop second waves… I don’t agree with it but scientifically they are not that far from scientists in any country in the world.”

Professor Ferguson was quizzed about why Sweden had recorded such few deaths without imposing lockdown, and faced questions about whether the economically-crippling measures were necessary in the UK.

[And what newfangled theory did Sweden apply to this pandemic that had the same, or better, health results as the punitive lockdowns imposed on the rest of us and without the economic catastrophe? Some new, cutting edge research, perhaps? Why, no. They, wittingly or unwittingly, applied the Bible’s requirements: quarantine the sick; leave the rest of us alone. See posts here, here, and here.]

USA Today

Over the last three months, more than 40,600 long-term care residents and workers have died of COVID-19 — about 40% of the nation’s death toll attributed to the coronavirus, according to an analysis of state data gathered  by USA TODAY. That number eclipses a count released Monday by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), the federal government’s first attempt at a comprehensive tally. CMS said 25,923 residents had died, but its number only includes federally regulated nursing homes, not assisted living facilities.

Even USA TODAY’s larger total — which amounts to roughly 450 COVID-19 elder care facility deaths per day — is an undercount. Seven states did not provide the number of deaths in long-term care. And New York, the state with the most resident deaths, doesn’t include those who had been transferred to hospitals in its count of long-term care fatalities.

[The article goes on to tell about families whose loved ones died in nursing homes because the homes had been ordered to accepts patients infected with the virus: “I would be at peace … but this did not have to happen,” was how one grieving daughter put it.]

[Given that almost half the total virus-related deaths in the USA have taken place in nursing homes {and that number is understated, according to USA Today}, tell me again: why was most of the country locked down? And why did state governors, such as the much-vaunted Governor Cuomo, order such facilities to admit virus infected patients, thereby sentencing such patients and the entire nursing facility to death?]

In Michigan, the state health department for months failed to track COVID-19 cases in its more than 1,000 assisted living facilities. A spokeswoman said the state began collecting that information on May 22 but doesn’t have plans to release it publicly at this time.

[Imagine that: the Michigan governor won’t release the data. Let them eat cake, I guess.]

In New York, the state’s official count of long-term care residents who have died doesn’t include those transferred to hospitals or other health care settings. 

In Pennsylvania, officials released a list of 557 facilities with COVID-19 cases for the first time on May 19. Almost immediately, the state health care association said the list was riddled with mistakes and demanded the errors be fixed. State officials made numerous updates to the data, including lowering the number of deaths and cases at some facilities.

[Why am I not surprised?]

Open Letter (NPR)

Infectious Disease Experts [“Experts”. I am sick of that term, aren’t you?] publish an open letter [encouraging “protests”.]

The letter was started by infectious disease experts [sic] at the University of Washington [the same university whose models, along with those from Professor Lockdown, the government had been using to inform policymaking that proved to be wrong over and over again].

Initially written by infectious disease experts [sic] at the University of Washington, the letter cited a number of systemic problems, from the disproportionately high rate at which black people have been killed by police in the U.S. [this is false, by the way] to disparities in life expectancy and other vital categories — including black Americans’ higher death rate from the coronavirus. […]

Local governments should not break up crowded demonstrations “under the guise of maintaining public health,” the experts [sic] said in their open letter. They urged law enforcement agencies not to use tear gas, smoke and other irritants, saying they could make people more susceptible to infection and worsen existing health conditions.”

The public health experts [sic!] noted the ‘potential for COVID-19 cases to rise in the days to come, according to NPR, and suggested access to testing and care in these communities be increased.

[So we must stay home. Except that we can go out, walk, and run should-to-shoulder with a mob. And throw bricks. “No” to church. “Yes” to riots. I really trust these public health officials, don’t you?]

Have we been had?

A troglodyte’s counsel: you and I have a duty to look askance at any “expert” advice which contradicts the Bible, no matter from whom such advice proceeds. 

All articles referred to above are linked below.

I’ll take Sweden.

‘Prof Lockdown’ Neil Ferguson admits Sweden used same science as UK

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8379769/Professor-Lockdown-Neil-Ferguson-admits-greatest-respect-Sweden.html

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2020/06/01/coronavirus-nursing-home-deaths-top-40-600/5273075002/

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Jyfn4Wd2i6bRi12ePghMHtX3ys1b7K1A/view

Can we trust Covid modelling? More evidence from Sweden | The SpectatorJohan NorbergAt last we’re getting a debate about Covid-19 modelling. When people finally got to look under the hood of the f…

How Wrong Were the Models and Why?
Analysis of both the Imperial College and the University of Washington COVID-19 models.

The Bible on Quarantine Part 2

Richard Barnes

Last week’s post (Part 1) addressed the Biblical model with regards to pandemics or infectious diseases.

As we saw, that model requires quarantine of the sick but not of the entire population. 

There is a country that has followed that model. It is a country that long ago abandoned its Christian and Biblical heritage, but that, in this case, whether knowingly or not, has been following the Biblical model pretty closely.

That country is Sweden.

Sweden and the state of Michigan each have populations of about 10 Million people. Michigan has followed a draconic lockdown, which has spurred protests in the capital city of Lansing. Sweden has not resorted to any lockdown, the only developed country which has not followed the example set by the rest of the world. Michigan has over 3,300 deaths; Sweden has a thousand less than Michigan.

If you prefer comparing against neighboring countries, which did impose lockdowns, the results are comparable when taking population densities and other factors into consideration. Two California emergency room physicians in the front lines of this pandemic were interviewed last week and addressed comparisons between Sweden and Norway (links below).

Let us take a look at the model that Sweden has been following.

In the first place, Sweden has not mandated the closing of anything. Everything is voluntary. If the businessman wants to stay open, he may stay open. If the lady wishes to eat in a restaurant, she may eat in a restaurant. Schools, churches, and cities continue open. Warnings have been issued addressing the aged, advising they should stay inside, especially during times of high contamination, since the aged are the ones most affected.

If someone gets sick, they are asked to quarantine or to go to a hospital until well.

The police do not go about arresting or penalizing anybody for going shopping, or enjoying a day in the park, or just going for a ride in a car or on a bicycle. 

Of course, Sweden has been criticized, attacked, mocked, and despised.

Why?

Could it be that the experts in other countries do not like it when they are contradicted? Two weeks ago, a group of 22 “scientists” attacked the officials of Sweden’s department of health, demanding the Swedish government discard the directives of that department and impose the measures all the other countries have imposed. They implied that the Swedish population had been willfully deluded by ignorant authorities and by an epidemiologist who has been seduced by his sudden fame.

Wow. It’s not nice to contradict “experts.”

A French journalist may have let the cat out of the bag when, while interviewing a Swedish epidemiologist, he said, “…it’s almost as if we want Sweden to fail because then we’d know the fools are they and not us.” [the quote is a paraphrase; I cannot find the original source]

But, leaving polemics behind, let us take a look at the results thus far.

The development of the contamination and the illnesses and deaths has been following the Swedish medical predictions pretty closely. Their models differed dramatically from the English models, to which the great majority of the governments of the world submitted. Their initial numbers have since been substantially reduced because they were exaggerated numbers to begin with.

Sweden counts each death as a Covid-19 death if the deceased had the virus, even though they know that the virus is not necessarily the cause of death for all who die and test positive for the virus. In other words, someone might die of cancer but if he had the virus, they count the death as a Covid death. Sweden does it so in order to be consistent with the majority of countries (and states) which have been categorizing their deaths in like manner.

Daily deaths are about 80 but have been decreasing. More will die in the coming weeks and months, but the mortality rate has been much less than the alarming predictions of 80 Thousand to 90 Thousand that were supposed to have died by summer.

The contamination rate has also been decreasing. The hospital situation is acceptable. The English models (to which most other countries adhered) anticipated that there’d be 8 Thousand to 9 Thousand patients requiring intensive care. The actual numbers are a fraction of that: 530. The hospitals are not overwhelmed. 

Sweden did not buy the “flatten the curve” meme.

The Swedish department of health is expecting that the country will develop a “herd immunity” against the virus. This is something that would not be easy to develop in other countries who have, in effect, quarantined the entire population. For now, this expectation cannot be proved. But, going forward, when the other countries proceed to “loosen” their lockdowns, we shall see how acute the next “waves” of contamination in those countries will compare to Sweden. For now, some Swedish medical researchers believe that 40 percent of Stockholm’s population has had the virus and the herd immunity will be achieved by end of May. This too has not been proved, but if it turns out to be so, then the Swedes will be in a far better situation than the rest of us.

Of course, the Swedish economy has suffered: GDP is expected to decrease by 4% and unemployment is expected to hit 9%. But that compares extremely positively against the economic reality of other countries who’s numbers are far worse. For example, England’s GDP decrease is expected to be 13%, or more than triple the Swedish drop.

In sum, it would have been far better to have followed a model more aligned with the much maligned Bible, where the aged and the sick would have been placed in quarantine; where we would have had a better chance of achieving herd immunity; where the models predicting catastrophic (“apocalyptic”) death rates would have been scrutinized more closely and would have been seen to have been greatly exaggerated (in fact, historically, those models have never been very accurate).

It is not unwise to seek our guidance from the Word of God. 

Below you will find a link to one of the articles addressing the Swedish experience from The Spectator (London).

Also, further below, you will find two links to a presentation before the press given last week by two California doctors who are in the front lines of the fight against the virus. The interview is about 62 minutes long and is excellent. 

This presentation is now at 4.7 Million views. 

“We’ve never seen it where we put the healthy in quarantine.” The first link is about 50 minutes long; the second is about 12 minutes. Very informative and very valuable. These two emergency room physicians also compare the results between Sweden and Norway. In addition, they talk about the immune system.

“Academics and reality are two different things.”

“When I write a death note, we are being pressured to add Covid…even when we think that the death had nothing to do with Covid.”

They allude to the Bible’s requirements for quarantine. 

It is fascinating to listen to the journalists’ questions. In effect they tend toward: dare you question the wisdom of Dr. Fauci?

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-swedish-experiment-looks-like-it-s-paying-off

Well. The longer link below got close to 5 Million views and was blocked by YouTube. Surprise! So it’s not really “Listen to the experts.” It’s more like, “Listen to OUR experts!” Anyway, link above had not been blocked as of this morning. Hopefully it is still accessible for you. It combines both links below.

Dr. Erickson COVID-19 Briefing

Dr. Erickson COVID-19 Briefing, Pt. 2